Putting Environmental Impact Assessments into Practice: Why High-Resolution Ocean Forecasting Is Crucial for the BBNJ Framework in the High Seas

From Policy to Practice: Data, Equity, and Capacity Building

The entry into force of the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreement marks a transformative moment in global ocean governance. Yet the success of this legal framework depends not only on policy commitments, but also on the technical capacity to implement them. For developing coastal countries, ensuring data equity and capacity building is a legal and ethical necessity. Without access to ocean prediction tools and the expertise to use them, effective governance of the high seas remains out of reach.

Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Area-Based Management Tools (ABMTs) which are two of the four pillars of the BBNJ Agreement are especially data-intensive. High-resolution ocean forecasting is therefore not optional: it is foundational to making EIAs operational in highly dynamic ocean environments.

Bangladesh’s Ocean Governance Experience

Bangladesh offers a compelling example of how national conservation efforts can align with high-seas governance. The country has established four Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), one Marine Reserve and enforces seasonal fishing bans totalling more than 75 days annually to protect biodiversity within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and adjacent high seas. The Saint Martin’s MPA safeguards Bangladesh’s only coral reef ecosystem in the Bay of Bengal, while the Delta Plan 2100 aims to protect the world’s largest delta, including the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) system.

Institutions such as the Department of Fisheries, Bangladesh Forest Department, and the Bangladesh Oceanographic Research Institute (BORI) play critical roles in biodiversity conservation, ocean governance, and advancing SDG 14 (Life Below Water). For countries like Bangladesh, ocean prediction and forecasting can be a crucial tool for improving at-sea safety for artisanal and commercial fisheries and significantly contributing to the biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and protection in the coastal areas and high seas.

With freely accessible satellite data, including ocean colour and altimetry, we already have the means to observe biodiversity patterns and monitor human activities. However, many developing nations lack the technical capacity or institutional support to use these tools effectively beyond their EEZs. Stronger international cooperation and shared commitments are essential to ensure the equitable and responsible use of high-seas resources.

Ocean Prediction as the “Eyes and Ears” of the BBNJ

As the BBNJ Agreement moves toward implementation, ocean prediction and forecasting become the eyes and ears of a largely unmonitored global common. In the Indian Seas, oceanographic conditions are highly variable on subseasonal timescales. My recent research on surface current variability in the Bay of Bengal demonstrates that marine habitats are constantly shifting which is making static management approaches insufficient.

To protect biodiversity in such dynamic systems, regulatory frameworks must be as adaptive and fluid as the ocean itself. High-resolution forecasting enables precisely this kind of responsive governance.

From Theory to Practice: A Real-World Application

This science-policy bridge is reflected in my current internship with the Wildlife Conservation Society Bangladesh under the Blue Action Fund supported Sustho Sagor (Healthy Ocean) project. In addition to supporting the survey team in collecting data during their at-sea expedition covering 18,000 square kilometres, I provided operational ocean forecasting reports that helped guiding the survey team in planning and conducting line transect sampling for collecting data on marine megafauna, including cetaceans, sharks, rays, and marine turtles as well as on threats from fisheries.

By integrating real-time ocean predictions with field observations, we can identify priority habitats with high spatial and temporal precision. This model, combining predictive modelling with field-based monitoring, offers a practical pathway for operationalizing the BBNJ Agreement’s objectives in the high seas. If we can predict where indicator species are likely to occur, we can more effectively design and implement protective measures.

The Path Toward Equity

A central promise of the BBNJ Agreement is the Transfer of Marine Technology. For the Global South, “entry into force” must also mean entry into data, tools, and expertise. As a Regional Team Member of the OceanPrediction DCC, I advocate for expanding access to ocean forecasting through structured capacity-building initiatives.

By fostering partnerships between technical platforms like the DCC and implementing organizations such as WCS, we can bridge technology with field conservation generating greater outcome for a healthy ocean for healthy people.

The BBNJ Agreement provides the map. Ocean prediction is the compass that will guide us toward a sustainable and equitable blue economy.

Contribution from Nadim Mahmud
Indian Seas Regional Steering Team Member

Contributed articles reflect the views of their authors and do not necessarily represent those of the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Centre or its partners. Content is not independently fact-checked or peer-reviewed by the Centre.

About Wildlife Conservation Society Bangladesh

WCS Bangladesh conducts cutting-edge wildlife science focusing on reducing threats that are pushing globally threatened species towards extinction. Robust science is the foundation for our policy recommendations and conservation actions. We share our discoveries and achievements through innovative outreach strategies that empower conservation constituencies and enhance compliance with regulations for safeguarding threatened wildlife and their key habitats. WCS supports the development and implementation of conservation management and legislation that incorporates local knowledge and balances the protection of threatened wildlife with human needs. To learn more about our work please visit www.bangladesh.wcs.org[NP1]