Hurricane Melissa & the Importance of Early Warning Systems

On October 28th, Hurricane Melissa made a landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 storm on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds reaching 300 km/. The island has not seen a hurricane of this strength since 1988. Currently, more than 25,000 people are in shelters across the western half of Jamaica,  & 77 percent of the island still is without power (France 24) Melissa also unleashed catastrophic flooding in Haiti, where at least 25 people were reported killed and 18 others missing, mostly in the country’s southern region. Thanks to improved early warning and prediction systems led by organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), warnings were spread across Jamaica and the region, giving residents time to prepare.

“Melissa will break many records. But we hope that casualties will be kept to a minimum thanks to the power of prediction, the benefits of international and regional cooperation based on data sharing and observations, and national action and community mobilization based on trust,” declared WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo (source: WMO Media).

Scientists from WMO’s Tropical Cyclone programme shared that Melissa would bring with her three times the normal amount of precipitation for a rainy month in Jamaica, or up to 700 millimetres. Thanks to prediction data and early warning systems, aid agencies were deployed, authorities sent out red alerts throughout the region in other countries like Haiti and Cuba, and over 800 evacuation shelters were prepared.

Early warning systems are important from a meteorological standpoint, but also within ocean forecasting & prediction. Early warning data reduces loss of life to communities and biodiversity, as well as reduces the amount of economic loss for business and infrastructure. For countries that are highly reliant on agriculture and small-scale businesses, this helps owners mitigate risks for their businesses and farms.

Melissa’s arrival came just days after the Eighteenth Meeting of the Contracting Parties (COP18) to the Cartagena Convention, held in Kingston, Jamaica, from 13–16 October 2026. The conference gathered over 80 delegates from 20 nations and 15 observer and youth organizations who discussed strategies for a resilient Caribbean Sea and stronger regional cooperation.

'The health of the Caribbean Sea is inseparable from the livelihood and identity of the Caribbean people. United action for a resilient Caribbean Sea is no longer optional, it is imperative. ' says Alberto Pacheco Capella, Chief of the UN Regional Seas Branch. His words are clear: as the region faces growing threats from climate change, and with many nations and island states defined by their coastlines, building resilience is more important than ever. United, data-driven action - from weather forecasting to ocean prediction - is essential.

Ocean data through ocean prediction and forecasting helps us in many ways. By continuously tracking variables such as sea surface temperature, current speeds, and more, researchers can better predict these types of natural disasters. 

This capability is of vital importance in a warming climate, where hurricanes are projected to increase in intensity and frequency. According to NASA, sea levels in the Caribbean are expected to rise by 0.3–1 metre (1–4 feet) by 2050.

Interested to learn more about the WMOs report on Hurricane Melissa? Read more here: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa threatens Jamaica and Caribbean islands